Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
