A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
